Week in Brief
Spreads were flat across every major FX pair and gold all week. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday and no broker moved its EUR/USD spread, which averaged 0.72 pips that day. The one instrument worth watching is NAS100: Swissquote ranged from 1.7 to 3.2 points across four days while BlackBull held firm at 1.0. WTI spreads averaged 4.86 to 5.85 points as US-Iran ceasefire talks continued.
Spread Movements by Instrument
EUR/USD
Stable- Week range
- 0.63 to 0.72 pips cross-broker average
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets and Pepperstone-World at 0.1 pips every day
- Notable
- ECB raised rates 25bp to 2.25% on Thursday. Spreads did not move. EUR/USD near 1.1530, two-month lows.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Stable- Week range
- 0.12 to 0.30 USD across core brokers, all four days
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.12 USD every day
- Notable
- Core brokers ranged 0.12 to 0.30 USD. Gold near $4,100.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Widened Tuesday, tightened Wednesday, widened Thursday- Week range
- 4.86 to 5.85 pts cross-broker average
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 1.9 to 2.0 pts (Monday and Wednesday), IG-World at 2.8 pts on the other days
- Notable
- IG-World held at 2.8 pts all week. WTI fell ~3% to $87.60 as US-Iran ceasefire talks continued. The average moved with ThinkMarkets' quotes on Monday and Wednesday.
GBP/USD
Stable- Week range
- 0.84 to 0.95 pips cross-broker average
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.1 pips every day
- Notable
- OANDA at 2.0 pips was the most expensive every day. GBP/USD near 1.3350 ahead of UK monthly GDP data.
US500
Stable with a Wednesday widening that reversed Thursday- Week range
- 0.70 to 0.76 pts cross-broker average
- Cheapest
- IG-World and ThinkMarkets at 0.3 to 0.4 pts
- Notable
- Swissquote widened from 1.1 to 1.35 pts on Wednesday, then fully reversed to 1.1 on Thursday.
NAS100
Volatile at Swissquote, stable at BlackBull- Week range
- 1.0 to 3.2 pts across brokers
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 1.0 pt every day
- Notable
- Swissquote ranged Mon 2.7, Tue 1.7, Wed 3.2, Thu 2.45 with no clear market trigger. BlackBull held firm all four days.
BTC/USD
Stable per broker- Week range
- 15 to 25 USD across brokers
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 15 USD (Monday and Wednesday)
- Notable
- ThinkMarkets quoted 15 USD and easyMarkets 25 USD.
USD/JPY
Stable- Week range
- 0.83 pips cross-broker average, all four days
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.1 pips every day
- Notable
- USD/JPY strengthened on safe-haven demand and sticky US inflation. Spreads held flat through the move.
Broker Spotlight
BlackBull Markets was the tightest book of the week, cheapest on EUR/USD (0.1 pips), GBP/USD (0.1 pips), USD/JPY (0.1 pips), and XAU/USD (0.12 USD) every day. OANDA on GBP/USD at 2.0 pips was the consistent outlier. Swissquote NAS100 hit 3.2 pts on Wednesday, three times BlackBull's 1.0 pt.
Market Context
- ECB rate hike. The European Central Bank raised rates 25bp to 2.25% on Thursday, its first hike in nearly three years. EUR/USD spreads averaged 0.72 pips on the day, with no broker moving its quote. EUR near two-month lows at 1.1530.
- US-Iran ceasefire talks. WTI crude fell ~3% to $87.60 as negotiations continued following last week's Strait of Hormuz closure. WTI spreads averaged 5.85 pts Thursday, from 4.86 pts on Monday.
- Gold at $4,100. Gold held near $4,100, pressured by rising Fed rate hike bets and a stronger dollar. XAU/USD spreads were unchanged all four days despite price movement.
- USD/JPY strengthening. The dollar gained against the yen on safe-haven demand and sticky US CPI data. USD/JPY spreads held flat at 0.83 pips all week.
To Watch Next Week
- Week of June 15: US-Iran ceasefire or escalation. Watch WTI/USD and XAU/USD for spread widening if talks break down.
- Week of June 15: UK monthly GDP release. A downside miss could widen GBP/USD spreads from the current 0.95 pip average.
- Mid-June: US retail sales and PPI. Strong data reinforces dollar strength. Watch for Swissquote index spread widening around the release.